CKBlog: The Market


Wednesday, July 28, 2021

2021 Semi-Annual Review: Hang On

by The CastleKeep Team

We urge clients to remain invested, even during the darkest of times. This strategy has paid off over time, and the first half of 2021 has been no different.

Read on: 2021 Semi-Annual Review: Hang On


Wednesday, March 03, 2021

The S&P 500 Index is Underperforming Itself

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

If you’ve been a big believer in “just owning the [S&P 500] index,” make sure you know which one you own.

Read on: The S&P 500 Index is Underperforming Itself


Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Look Out for Outlooks 2021 Edition

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

It’s that time of year again where strategists are paraded on TV to share their predictions for the market in 2021. Ignore them. Here’s why.

Read on: Look Out for Outlooks 2021 Edition


Saturday, January 30, 2021

GameStop Nonstop

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

A wild ride for GameStop—but what is really going on?

Read on: GameStop Nonstop


Thursday, January 28, 2021

SPAC Attack

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

SPACs are all the rage. So what are they, and why all the hype?

Read on: SPAC Attack


Wednesday, January 20, 2021

2020 Year in Review

by The CastleKeep Team

Everything happened in 2020. If you were confused in 2020, you weren’t alone.

Read on: 2020 Year in Review


Monday, December 21, 2020

You Just Bought Tesla

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

If you own an S&P 500 Index fund, you just bought Tesla.

Read on: You Just Bought Tesla


Sunday, November 08, 2020

Election Reaction

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

Record COVID-19 cases globally. A contested election. A potential Democrat sweep. What does the stock market do?

Read on: Election Reaction


Friday, October 16, 2020

Election Deflection

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

Tensions surrounding the upcoming Presidential and Congressional elections are increasing. Investors are concerned. But, the stock market isn’t political. The market doesn’t operate in a voting booth; stocks are executed on a trading floor ...

Read on: Election Deflection


Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Mega Tough to Play Microsoft

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

If you find yourself buying stocks because your friends have made money in them or you want to sell a good business which stock has languished, take a look at Microsoft’s two-faced, two-decade run.

Read on: Mega Tough to Play Microsoft


Wednesday, July 22, 2020

2020 Semi-Annual Review: A Tale of Two Quarters

by The CastleKeep Team

We end the analytic portion of our review by reminding you that it pays to hold on. So, thank you for doing just that, especially during the most volatile and perhaps scariest six months some of us can remember.

Read on: 2020 Semi-Annual Review: A Tale of Two Quarters


Thursday, June 11, 2020

In Recession

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

We’re in a recession. So do we buy or sell now, or what?

Read on: In Recession


Wednesday, April 15, 2020

The Longest Quarter

by The CastleKeep Team

We started our 2019 Annual Review letter with “Everything Worked.” The opposite was true in the first quarter of 2020. Nothing worked. It was very ugly and it happened so fast.

Read on: The Longest Quarter


Thursday, March 26, 2020

Three Million Jobs Lost

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

As I type this, the S&P 500 Index is up 3% to 4%. More than three million people lost their job last week! How on earth is this possible?

Read on: Three Million Jobs Lost


Monday, March 16, 2020

The Most Common Question

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

The S&P 500 Index dropped 11.98% on Monday, March 16. In a perfect world, we would have seen this coming, understood the extent of it, knew how long the selling would last, and perfectly timed our re-entry into the markets. But last I checked, as evidenced by the virus’ outbreak, we don’t live in a perfect world.

Read on: The Most Common Question


Thursday, March 12, 2020

10% from the Bottom

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

You have no idea when the market will bottom. I have no idea when the market will bottom. Why? Because none of us perfectly called the top of the market so why would we expect to be able to call the bottom?  Some of our clients have been putting cash to work in this environment. A common question has been, “When is the right time to invest?”

Read on: 10% from the Bottom


Saturday, February 29, 2020

Indiscriminate Selling

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

Last week was ugly. The S&P 500 Index declined 12.76% from its highs literally seven trading days ago. Other than cash, gold, a few biotech companies, and video conferencing companies, there was virtually nowhere to hide. We would argue the selling was indiscriminate. Globally, investors were in total “risk off” mode.

Read on: Indiscriminate Selling


Thursday, February 13, 2020

Sleep Regression and the Stock Market

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

Humans suffer from recency bias. We take the most recent information and extrapolate it into the future. Nowhere is recency bias more apparent than in the stock market.

Read on: Sleep Regression and the Stock Market


Tuesday, January 28, 2020

2019 Market Review

by The CastleKeep Team

Everything worked in 2019, despite trade wars, yield curve inversions, recession fears, tensions in the Middle East, House impeachment of the President, WeWork pulling their IPO ... So what is going on?

Read on: 2019 Market Review


Thursday, January 23, 2020

Wuhan Coronavirus: a Look Back at SARS & the Market

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

With more news outlets covering the recent outbreak of the Coronavirus and the first reported case in the US, we thought that a post on the topic was warranted.

Read on: Wuhan Coronavirus: a Look Back at SARS & the Market


Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Netflix and Chill

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

Netflix was up 4,181% during the 2010s. It was the best performing stock in the S&P 500 Index. Would you have held it the whole time?

Read on: Netflix and Chill


Friday, January 10, 2020

Look Out for Outlooks 2020 Edition

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

It’s that time of year again where strategists share their predictions for the market in 2020. Ignore them. For the last three years I have documented their accuracy. And while these folks are no doubt brilliant, their predictions (guesses) have, on average, missed the mark by a wide margin.

Read on: Look Out for Outlooks 2020 Edition


Friday, February 01, 2019

Look Out for Outlooks 2019 Edition

by Steve Haberstroh, Partner

It’s very difficult to successfully predict the future. Whether your expertise is in elections, the weather, or financial markets, if your profession requires you to make predictions, then your profession requires you to be wrong most of the time.

Read on: Look Out for Outlooks 2019 Edition


Friday, January 25, 2019

2018 Market Review

by The CastleKeep Team

2018 reminded investors that equity markets are unpredictable and volatile. As they should be. Otherwise, why should we expect 8-10% returns per year over the long run?

Read on: 2018 Market Review


Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Things Move Fast. Slow Down. Our 2018 Q2 Market Review

by Charlie Haberstroh, CEO & CIO

In this era of social media, it is important to remember that events which used to take hours, days, weeks, or even months to reach the news are now shared with millions within minutes. Due to constant “breaking news” we are all subject to instant analysis, gut reactions, and ultimately superficial responses to events. It’s hard to block out the noise. Things seem to be moving too fast. What to do?

Read on: Things Move Fast. Slow Down. Our 2018 Q2 Market Review