CKBlog

Friday, April 20, 2018

Don’t Sleep on Non-US Stocks

Over the last 14 years in the business ... one thing has become clear to me. Mean reversion is real and universal. Things that have been hot for a while tend to cool down. Likewise, things that have been out of favor eventually become the favorites. You earn the fruits of the good times by sticking through the bad times. What am I talking about?

Read on: Don’t Sleep on Non-US Stocks

Topic: The Market

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Is it Time to Break Up with the S&P?

Many of you out there have committed nearly 100% of your investable assets to the S&P 500 index or have been contemplating doing just that. Given the recent correction (we officially hit a 10% sell-off in the index), on this Valentine’s Day, I ask “should you break up with the S&P?”

Read on: Is it Time to Break Up with the S&P?

Topic: The Market

Friday, January 19, 2018

2017 Market Review

Notes from our CIO on the Market in 2017, and some things to consider in 2018.

Read on: 2017 Market Review

Topic: The Market

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Look Out for Outlooks!

Look Out, the 2018 Financial Outlooks are out!

Outlooks are rarely accurate. It is impossible to successfully and consistently predict the outcomes of the financial markets, especially in the near term. 2017 is a perfect example of why the markets have the habit of proving prognosticators wrong.

Read on: Look Out for Outlooks!

Topic: The Market

Friday, December 08, 2017

Bitcoin, FOMO, and the Greater Fool

Over the last several weeks, I’ve fielded many inquiries about Bitcoin. “What is Bitcoin?” “Should I invest?” “How do I invest?” “Am I too late?” I have many conversations about Bitcoin with some of the smartest people I know who are also trying to figure this out. It’s starting to reach a fever pitch. What to do?

Read on: Bitcoin, FOMO, and the Greater Fool

Topic: The Market

Thursday, October 19, 2017

Black Monday

What would’ve happened to a $10,000 investment made on Black Monday if you’d just left it in the market for the next 30 years?

Read on: Black Monday

Topic: The Market

Monday, July 31, 2017

2017 Semi-Annual Review

If someone stood before you on December 31, 2016 and told you that by June 30th, 2017 the S&P 500 Index would be up +9.34% including dividends, you’d likely have assumed that the Trump administration accomplished several key aspects of their “Pro Business” agenda. You might have expected that major tax reforms were passed, regulations were slashed, an infrastructure bill was moving through Congress and a reasonable solution to the Affordable Health Care Act was achieved. You’d be wrong.

In fact, despite the stalemate and dysfunction in Washington, D.C., the S&P 500 Index is up +14.74% since Trump was elected through June 30th 2017. So if the US stock market performance cannot be attributed pro-business legislation, what can we point to?

Read on: 2017 Semi-Annual Review

Topic: The Market

Friday, January 27, 2017

2016 Market Review

2016 was the year of surprises. 

January 2016 started with concerns of de-escalating economic growth in China which triggered an historic sell-off in the first five weeks of the year. Extreme pessimism reigned as global growth worries were paramount. Petroleum prices were weak and bonds rallied. Investors grew more and more concerned. Headlines extrapolated short-term weakness into a prolonged correction which amplified investor anxiety. On February 11th, the S&P 500 Index was down 10.27%. But by mid-March, the S&P 500 Index was trading in positive territory. Surprise! The pundits were wrong.

Read on: 2016 Market Review

Topic: The Market

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Trump Victory and the Markets

As the pundits say, elections have consequences. But then again, they’ve said many things that didn’t come true during this election cycle. Like Brexit, almost everyone’s prediction on the results of the US election were wrong on all fronts; most notably, very few predicted the Trump victory and the Republican control of both houses of the US Congress. It is hard to read the tea leaves when there have been few policy pronouncements by Trump or his campaign. As in the US election eight years ago, the American voters wanted change and have spoken loudly.

Read on: Trump Victory and the Markets

Topic: The Market

Friday, June 24, 2016

BREXIT:  What Now?

That’s the pertinent question.

Folks in the Western Hemisphere are now waking up to the news that the UK has narrowly voted to leave the European Union. Global markets are showing their displeasure as most equity indexes are facing steep losses. As I write this (6:45 am EST), the UK’s FTSE is off by 5%, the German DAX is off by 7%, Spain’s IBEX is off by 10%, and the S&P 500 Index futures are signaling a 3% loss at the open (2.5 hours from now). If each of the markets closed at these levels, they’d erase the last week of gains. So that is where we are now. What happens next?

Read on: BREXIT:  What Now?

Topic: The Market