CKBlog

Thursday, March 12, 2020

10% from the Bottom

You have no idea when the market will bottom. I have no idea when the market will bottom. Why? Because none of us perfectly called the top of the market so why would we expect to be able to call the bottom?  Some of our clients have been putting cash to work in this environment. A common question has been, “When is the right time to invest?”

Read on: 10% from the Bottom

Topic: The Market

Saturday, February 29, 2020

Indiscriminate Selling

Last week was ugly. The S&P 500 Index declined 12.76% from its highs literally seven trading days ago. Other than cash, gold, a few biotech companies, and video conferencing companies, there was virtually nowhere to hide. We would argue the selling was indiscriminate. Globally, investors were in total “risk off” mode.

Read on: Indiscriminate Selling

Topic: The Market

Thursday, February 13, 2020

Sleep Regression and the Stock Market

Humans suffer from recency bias. We take the most recent information and extrapolate it into the future. Nowhere is recency bias more apparent than in the stock market.

Read on: Sleep Regression and the Stock Market

Topic: The Market

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

2019 Market Review

Everything worked in 2019, despite trade wars, yield curve inversions, recession fears, tensions in the Middle East, House impeachment of the President, WeWork pulling their IPO ... So what is going on?

Read on: 2019 Market Review

Topic: The Market

Thursday, January 23, 2020

Wuhan Coronavirus: a Look Back at SARS & the Market

With more news outlets covering the recent outbreak of the Coronavirus and the first reported case in the US, we thought that a post on the topic was warranted.

Read on: Wuhan Coronavirus: a Look Back at SARS & the Market

Topic: The Market

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Netflix and Chill

Netflix was up 4,181% during the 2010s. It was the best performing stock in the S&P 500 Index. Would you have held it the whole time?

Read on: Netflix and Chill

Topic: The Market

Friday, January 10, 2020

Look Out for Outlooks 2020 Edition

It’s that time of year again where strategists share their predictions for the market in 2020. Ignore them. For the last three years I have documented their accuracy. And while these folks are no doubt brilliant, their predictions (guesses) have, on average, missed the mark by a wide margin.

Read on: Look Out for Outlooks 2020 Edition

Topic: The Market

Friday, February 01, 2019

Look Out for Outlooks 2019 Edition

It’s very difficult to successfully predict the future. Whether your expertise is in elections, the weather, or financial markets, if your profession requires you to make predictions, then your profession requires you to be wrong most of the time.

Read on: Look Out for Outlooks 2019 Edition

Topic: The Market

Friday, January 25, 2019

2018 Market Review

2018 reminded investors that equity markets are unpredictable and volatile. As they should be. Otherwise, why should we expect 8-10% returns per year over the long run?

Read on: 2018 Market Review

Topic: The Market

Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Things Move Fast. Slow Down. Our 2018 Q2 Market Review

In this era of social media, it is important to remember that events which used to take hours, days, weeks, or even months to reach the news are now shared with millions within minutes. Due to constant “breaking news” we are all subject to instant analysis, gut reactions, and ultimately superficial responses to events. It’s hard to block out the noise. Things seem to be moving too fast. What to do?

Read on: Things Move Fast. Slow Down. Our 2018 Q2 Market Review

Topic: The Market