CKBlog

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Trump Victory and the Markets

As the pundits say, elections have consequences. But then again, they’ve said many things that didn’t come true during this election cycle. Like Brexit, almost everyone’s prediction on the results of the US election were wrong on all fronts; most notably, very few predicted the Trump victory and the Republican control of both houses of the US Congress. It is hard to read the tea leaves when there have been few policy pronouncements by Trump or his campaign. As in the US election eight years ago, the American voters wanted change and have spoken loudly.

Read on: Trump Victory and the Markets

Topic: The Market

Friday, June 24, 2016

BREXIT:  What Now?

That’s the pertinent question.

Folks in the Western Hemisphere are now waking up to the news that the UK has narrowly voted to leave the European Union. Global markets are showing their displeasure as most equity indexes are facing steep losses. As I write this (6:45 am EST), the UK’s FTSE is off by 5%, the German DAX is off by 7%, Spain’s IBEX is off by 10%, and the S&P 500 Index futures are signaling a 3% loss at the open (2.5 hours from now). If each of the markets closed at these levels, they’d erase the last week of gains. So that is where we are now. What happens next?

Read on: BREXIT:  What Now?

Topic: The Market

Friday, February 19, 2016

My Painter Arrived Today with His Investment Account Statement

If your portfolio is keeping you up a night, spend some time to review your holdings and rationalize why you own them. If you are having trouble doing this, please give us a call.

Read on: My Painter Arrived Today with His Investment Account Statement

Topic: Standards

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

MLP Analysis

It was a rough year for Master Limited Partnership securities, commonly known as “MLPs”.

The largest MLP Index Fund, the JP Morgan Alerian MLP Index Fund, (which we have written/spoken about in the past) was down 32.96% including dividends in 2015. The price of WTI Crude was down 37.41% in 2015. Based on published research, less than 15% of the pipelines contained in this ETF have direct oil or natural gas price risk. 85% of the companies within the fund make revenues much the same way that toll roads do. The more volume that passes through their pipes, the more revenue they collect. We have found no credible evidence that the demand for oil or natural gas in this country has dropped enough to warrant such a dramatic sell off in the prices of these securities ...

Read on: MLP Analysis

Topic: The Market

2015 Market Review

As we entered 2015 we believed that the US equity markets were “fully” valued and that the European markets showed better equity values. We also believed that traditional fixed income would not be a winning investment. In addition, we believed that investors should avoid emerging markets’ debt and equities. We continued to maintain exposure to US equities principally (1) through managers who bought equities which they believed were undervalued compared to their intrinsic value (in some cases by an estimated 30%) and (2) through two proprietary strategies: (a) one of which purchases companies’ equities which are valued 25% lower than the average market price earnings ratio but have above average growth prospects; and (b) the other identifies high quality companies which have increased dividends consistently over the last 10 years. Interestingly enough, 2015 proved to be one of the “worst best” years in terms of the performance of major asset classes ...

Read on: 2015 Market Review

Topic: The Market

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Market Unrest

This past week, after moving sideways for almost six months, the world’s equity markets have plunged. Well, plunged is a bit dramatic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is “in correction,” since technically it is down over 10% since the market high in May 2015. Many other markets, especially equities in emerging markets, are down more than 10%. Volatility is up, commodities in general are down. Bonds have rallied from very low interest rates. Gold has even moved higher (a sign of market instability or possibly enhanced inflation)!

Read on: Market Unrest

Topic: The Market

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Rental Golf Clubs are Suitable

Within our industry, there is much debate about the Fiduciary Standard and how it compares to the Suitability Standard. This debate has even reached the White House. But what is the difference between them, and how does it translate in a real-world scenario?

Read on: Rental Golf Clubs are Suitable

Topic: Standards

Monday, January 12, 2015

2014 Market Review

It may be surprising that in a year where the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were both up more than 10%, 2014 was a challenging year for the global investor.

Read on: 2014 Market Review

Topic: The Market

Monday, December 01, 2014

Understanding College Savings Plans: Let’s Hit the Books

A common topic these days is how to save for the kids’ college tuition—it can be a daunting prospect. Many parents admit they’re scared. “With tuition rates continuing to rise, how in the world will I be able to pay for little Johnny in 15 years? It’s like another monthly mortgage payment!  Where do I begin?”

Here is a way to approach planning for college tuition.

Read on: Understanding College Savings Plans: Let’s Hit the Books

Topic: Financial Planning